Load Estimation Method Using Distributions with Covariates: A Comparison with Commonly Used Estimation Methods

Load estimates obtained using an approach based on statistical distributions with parameters expressed as a function of covariates (e.g., streamflow) (distribution with covariates hereafter called DC method) were compared to four load estimation methods: (1) flow‐weighted mean concentration; (2) integral regression; (3) segmented regression (the last two with Ferguson's correction factor); and (4) hydrograph separation methods. A total of 25 datasets (from 19 stations) of daily concentrations of total dissolved solids, nutrients, or suspended particulate matter were used. The selected stations represented a wide range of hydrological conditions. Annual flux errors were determined by randomly generating 50 monthly sample series from daily series. Annual and interannual biases and dispersions were evaluated and compared. The impact of sampling frequency was investigated through the generation of bimonthly and weekly surveys. Interannual uncertainty analysis showed that the performance of the DC method was comparable with those of the other methods, except for stations showing high hydrological variability. In this case, the DC method performed better, with annual biases lower than those characterizing the other methods. Results show that the DC method generated the smallest pollutant load errors when considering a monthly sampling frequency for rivers showing high variability in hydrological conditions and contaminant concentrations.     

Native predators reduce harvest of reindeer by Sámi pastoralists

Contemporary efforts to protect biological diversity recognize the importance of sustaining traditional human livelihoods, particularly uses of the land that are compatible with intact landscapes and ecologically complete food webs. However, these efforts often confront conflicting goals. For example, conserving native predators may harm pastoralist economies because predators consume domestic livestock that sustain people. This potential conflict must be reconciled by policy, but such reconciliation requires a firm understanding of the effects of predators on the prey used by people. We used a long-term, large-scale database and Bayesian models to estimate the impacts of lynx (Lynx lynx), wolverine (Gulo gulo), and brown bear (Ursus arctos) on harvest of semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) by Sami pastoralists in Sweden. The average annual harvest of reindeer averaged 25% of the population (95% credible interval = 19, 31). Annual harvest declined by 96.6 (31, 155) reindeer for each lynx family group (the surveyed segment of the lynx population) in a management unit and by 94.3 (20, 160) for each wolverine reproduction (the surveyed segment of the wolverine population). We failed to detect effects of predation by brown bear. The mechanism for effects of predation on harvest was reduced population growth rate. The rate of increase of reindeer populations declined with increasing abundance of lynx and wolverine. The density of reindeer, latitude, and weather indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation also influenced reindeer population growth rate. We conclude that there is a biological basis for compensating the Sámi reindeer herders for predation on reindeer.     

Bird disturbance on conservation sites in Brittany (France): the standpoint of geographers

Bird disturbance by human activities is one of the impacts related to human presence at conservation sites in Brittany (France). This paper is an attempt at reviewing this relatively unknown problem through the results of an international bibliographical review and of a regional inquiry conducted in close collaboration with managers of the conservation areas in Brittany. These two approaches will help to demonstrate the extent and complexity of the human / fauna interactions, as well as to take stock of the state of research in this field and, last but not least, to highlight the difficulties managers of conservation sites are facing to deal with this new issue. For the managers, bird disturbance is indeed the most important impact related to human attendance on conservation sites in Brittany.     

Coregionalization analysis with a drift for multi-scale assessment of spatial relationships between ecological variables 1. Estimation of drift and random components

In two articles, we present ‘coregionalization analysis with a drift’ (CRAD), a method to assess the multi-scale variability of and relationships between ecological variables from a multivariate spatial data set. In phase I of CRAD (the first article), a deterministic drift component representing the large-scale pattern and a random component modeled as a second-order stationary process are estimated for each variable separately. In phase II (this article), a linear model of coregionalization (LMC) is fitted by estimated generalized least squares to the direct and cross experimental variograms of residuals (i.e., after the removal of estimated drifts). Structural correlations and coefficients of determination at smaller scales are then computed from the estimated coregionalization matrices, while the estimated drifts are used to calculate pseudo coefficients at large scale. The performance of five procedures in estimating correlations and coefficients of determination was compared using a Monte Carlo study. In four CRAD procedures, drift estimation was based on local polynomials of order 0, 1, 2 (L₀, L₁, L₂) or a global polynomial with forward selection of the basis functions; the fifth procedure was coregionalization analysis (CRA), in which large-scale patterns were modeled as a supplemental component in the LMC. In bivariate and multivariate analyses, the uncertainty in the estimation of correlations and coefficients of determination could be related to the interference between spatial components within a bounded sampling domain. In the bivariate case, most procedures provided acceptable estimates of correlations. In regionalized redundancy analysis, uncertainty was highest for CRA, while L₁ provided the best results overall. In a forest ecology example, the identification of scale-specific correlations between plant species diversity and soil and topographical variables illustrated the potential of CRAD to provide unique insight into the functioning of complex ecosystems.     

Occurrence of 1,1′-dimethyl-4,4′-bipyridinium (Paraquat) in irrigated soil of the Lake Chad Basin,Niger

Increased use of agrochemical products to improve yields for irrigated crops in sub-Saharan Africa has been accompanied by a significant increase in the risk of environmental contamination. Detailed examples of the fate of pesticides after initial spreading on crop fields are scarce in tropical regions, where safe practices and related health risks are poorly understood by smallholder farmers. In the semi-arid environment of the Lake Chad Basin, SE Niger, both intrinsic properties of pesticides and extrinsic factors such as soil and climate helped to characterize processes leading to an accumulation of pesticides in soils. Analysis by HPLC-UV of a 6 m deep soil profile showed the presence of Paraquat at concentrations from 953?±?102 μg kg^?1 to 3083?±?175 μg kg^?1 at depths between 0.80 and 2.75 m below the land surface. Soil analysis revealed that up to approximately 15 % of the total soil matrix consists of smectites, a clay mineral capable of retaining cationic pesticides such as Paraquat, and a very low content of organic matter (<0.15 wt.% TOC). Paraquat could be stored and not bioavailable in a clayey barrier at approximately 2-m depth and therefore does not represent an immediate risk for populations or environment in this form. However, if the Paraquat application rate remains constant, the clayey barrier could reach a saturation limit within 150–200 years and 180–220 years if we consider a DT50 in soil of ~1,000 days (FAO). Consequently, it could lead to a deeper infiltration and so a pollution of groundwater. Such a scenario can represent a health risk for drinking water and for the Lake Chad, which is a major resource for this densely populated region of semi-arid Africa. Further analyses should focus on deeper layers and groundwater Paraquat contents to validate or invalidate the hypothesis of storage in this clay-rich layer.     

Does “adaptation to climate change” mean resignation or opportunity?

It has been widely acknowledged that people’s beliefs and perceptions influence implementation of climate change adaptation. Regarding perception barriers, some authors keep highlighting the confused definition of adaptation and its various interpretations. Our research contributes to this area by exploring how adaptation to climate change is perceived through 83 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders (public and municipal organizations, ENGO, private sector) from Montreal and Paris. Our results demonstrate a mirror opposition in the perception of adaptation to climate change. Indeed, while several respondents interpreted adaptation as a resignation, many interviewees perceived adaptation as an opportunity. The analysis showed that adaptation referring to resignation includes the ideas of a non-action and detrimental to mitigation; an excuse for not changing; anxiety about climate change; fatalism; and human failure. Adaptation perceived as an opportunity is divided into a source of creativity; toward sustainable development; led by the emergency; and awareness and making society of its responsibilities. Our findings confirm that terminological ambiguity of the term “adaptation” has to be considered in the decision-making process, which can be influenced by the perception of stakeholders.     

Gonopod tegumental glands: a new accessory sex gland in the Brachyura

It is not yet known whether gonopod tegumental glands (GTG) previously described in one species of brachyuran crab (Chionoecetes opilio) are a general feature in this large taxon. In order to determine the prevalence and role of GTG in the Brachyura, the first gonopods of six species of boreo-temperate and tropical brachyurans belonging to four families were examined morphologically and histologically, using the PAS–Alcian-blue staining protocol: Carcinus maenas, Portunus sebae, and Ovalipes ocellatus (Portunidae), Cancer irroratus (Cancridae), Grapsus grapsus (Grapsidae), and Petrolisthes armatus (Porcellanidae). Discrete rosette-type GTG were found in all species examined, although the longitudinal extent and location differed somewhat between taxa. The GTG were invariably grouped about the ejaculatory canal, and communicated with the lumen of the ejaculatory canal via ducts which traversed pores in the cuticle; staining properties of secretions at the duct openings to the ejaculatory canal matched those of the GTG. Neither GTG, ducts, nor pores were observed in regions distal to the ejaculatory canal. These data indicate that the prime, if not exclusive, role of the GTG is in reproduction, and that GTG may therefore be considered accessory sex glands. Together with previous and current investigations such GTG have been observed in all eight brachyuran species examined from five families, and are thus probably ubiquitous within the Brachyura. The organization and nature of the gland secretions differed between taxa: alternating acid (AMPS) and neutral mucopolysaccharide (NMPS) layers in the three Portunidae, AMPS only in Cancer irroratus, and NMPS only in Grapsus grapsus and Petrolisthes armatus. When combined with data on gonopod morphology and occurrence of spermatophore-less sealant in the ejaculate of various brachyurans, two plausible functions of the AMPS GTG secretions emerge: protection of the male's genetic investment (stored spermatophores) from opportunistic microbes following copulation, and the reciprocal processes of sperm competition and paternity assurance. The NMPS secretions may function as a lubricant to reduce mechanical wear of the ejaculatory canal by the second gonopod during copulation, and to reduce the viscosity of the ejaculate from the vas deferens as it enters the narrow ejaculatory canal. Received: 26 January 1998 / Accepted: 11 June 1998     

Exploring the emergence of a tipping point for conservation with increased recognition of social considerations

Despite a common understanding of the harmful impacts of Western conservation models that separate people from nature, widespread progress toward incorporating socioeconomic, political, cultural, and spiritual considerations in conservation practice is lacking. For some, the concept of nature-based solutions (NbS) is seen as an interdisciplinary and holistic pathway to better integrate human well-being in conservation. We examined how conservation practitioners in the United States view NbS and how social considerations are or are not incorporated in conservation adaptation projects. We interviewed 28 individuals working on 15 different such projects associated with the Wildlife Conservation Society's Climate Adaptation Fund. We completed 2 rounds of iterative coding in NVivo 12.6.1 to identify in the full text of all interview responses an a priori set of themes related to our research questions and emergent themes. Many respondents saw this moment as a tipping point for the field (one in which the perceived values of social considerations are increasing in conservation practice) (76%) and that social justice concerns and the need to overcome racist and colonial roots of Western conservation have risen to the forefront. Respondents also tentatively agreed that NbS in conservation could support social and ecological outcomes for conservation, but that it was far from guaranteed. Despite individual intention and awareness among practitioners to incorporate social considerations in conservation practice, structural barriers, including limited funding and inflexible grant structures, continue to constrain systemic change. Ultimately, systemic changes that address power and justice in policy and practice are required to leverage this moment to more fully address social considerations in conservation.